Source link – Reserve Bank of Australia

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to
3.85 per cent. It also increased the rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis
points to 3.75 per cent.

Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7 per cent is still too high and it will be
some time yet before it is back in the target range. Given the importance of returning inflation to
target within a reasonable timeframe, the Board judged that a further increase in interest rates was
warranted today.

The Board held interest rates steady last month to provide additional time to assess the state of the
economy and the outlook. While the recent data showed a welcome decline in inflation, the central
forecast remains that it takes a couple of years before inflation returns to the top of the target range;
inflation is expected to be 4½ per cent in 2023 and 3 per cent in mid-2025.
Goods price inflation is clearly slowing due to a better balance of supply and demand following the
resolution of the pandemic disruptions. But services price inflation is still very high and broadly based
and the experience overseas points to upside risks. Unit labour costs are also rising briskly, with
productivity growth remaining subdued.

The recent Australian data also confirmed that the labour market remains very tight, with the unemployment
rate at a near 50-year low. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although there
has been some easing in labour shortages and the number of vacancies has declined a little.

The Board’s priority remains to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for
people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in
people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates
and a larger rise in unemployment. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is
important that this remains the case. Today’s further adjustment in interest rates will help in this
regard.

Wages growth has picked up in response to the tight labour market and high inflation. At the aggregate
level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth
picks up. The Board remains alert to the risk that expectations of ongoing high inflation contribute to
larger increases in both prices and wages, especially given the limited spare capacity in the economy and
the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both
the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board is still seeking to keep the economy on an even keel as inflation returns to the
2–3 per cent target range, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one. The
central forecast is for the economy to continue growing, albeit at a below-trend pace; GDP is forecast to
increase by 1¼ per cent this year and around 2 per cent over the year to mid-2025.
Given the expected below-trend growth in the economy, the unemployment rate is forecast to increase
gradually to be around 4½ per cent in mid-2025.

A significant source of uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption. The combination
of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and the earlier decline in housing prices is leading
to a substantial slowing in household spending. While some households have substantial savings buffers,
others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances. There are also uncertainties regarding the
global economy, which is expected to grow at a below-average rate over the next couple of years.

Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a
reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve. The Board will
continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and
the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to
return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.



Source link – Reserve Bank of Australia